Human Reproduction, Vol. 14, No. 7, 1835-1839,
July 1999
© 1999 European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology
Day-specific probabilities of clinical pregnancy based on two studies with imperfect measures of ovulation
1 Biostatistics Branch, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, MD A3-03, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, and 2 Epidemiology Branch, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, USA
Two studies have related the timing of sexual intercourse (relative to ovulation) to day-specific fecundability. The first was a study of Catholic couples practising natural family planning in London in the 1950s and 1960s and the second was of North Carolina couples attempting to become pregnant in the early 1980s. The former identified ovulation based on the ovulatory shift in the basal body temperature, while the latter used urinary assays of hormones. We use a statistical model to correct for error in identifying ovulation and to re-estimate the length of the fertile window and day-specific fecundabilities. We estimate the same 6-day fertile interval in both studies after controlling for error. After adjusting for error both data sets showed the highest estimate of the probability of pregnancy on the day prior to ovulation and both fell close to zero after ovulation. Given that the fertile interval is before ovulation, methods that anticipate ovulation by several days (such as the assessment of cervical mucus) would be particularly useful for couples who want to time their intercourse either to avoid or facilitate conception.
Key words: basal body temperature/fecundability/fertile interval/ovulation/urinary metabolites
3 To whom correspondence should be addressed
CiteULike 
Connotea 
Del.icio.us What's this?
This article has been cited by other articles:
|
|
 |
|
  C. Ferdenzi, B. Schaal, and S. C. Roberts Human Axillary Odor: Are There Side-Related Perceptual Differences? Chem Senses, September 1, 2009; 34(7): 565 - 571. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 C. L Apicella and D. R Feinberg Voice pitch alters mate-choice-relevant perception in hunter-gatherers Proc R Soc B, March 22, 2009; 276(1659): 1077 - 1082. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 S. R. Pallone and G. R. Bergus Fertility Awareness-Based Methods: Another Option for Family Planning J Am Board Fam Med, March 1, 2009; 22(2): 147 - 157. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 P. Frank-Herrmann, J. Heil, C. Gnoth, E. Toledo, S. Baur, C. Pyper, E. Jenetzky, T. Strowitzki, and G. Freundl The effectiveness of a fertility awareness based method to avoid pregnancy in relation to a couple's sexual behaviour during the fertile time: a prospective longitudinal study Hum. Reprod., May 1, 2007; 22(5): 1310 - 1319. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 J. B. Stanford and D. B. Dunson Effects of Sexual Intercourse Patterns in Time to Pregnancy Studies Am. J. Epidemiol., May 1, 2007; 165(9): 1088 - 1095. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 F. Miro, S. W. Parker, L. J. Aspinall, J. Coley, P. W. Perry, and J. E. Ellis Relationship between Follicle-Stimulating Hormone Levels at the Beginning of the Human Menstrual Cycle, Length of the Follicular Phase and Excreted Estrogens: The FREEDOM Study J. Clin. Endocrinol. Metab., July 1, 2004; 89(7): 3270 - 3275. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
A.J. Wilcox, D. Day Baird, D. B. Dunson, D. R. McConnaughey, J. S. Kesner, and C. R. Weinberg On the frequency of intercourse around ovulation: evidence for biological influences Hum. Reprod., July 1, 2004; 19(7): 1539 - 1543. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
J. L. Bigelow, D. B. Dunson, J. B. Stanford, R. Ecochard, C. Gnoth, and B. Colombo Mucus observations in the fertile window: a better predictor of conception than timing of intercourse Hum. Reprod., April 1, 2004; 19(4): 889 - 892. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
C. Gnoth, D. Godehardt, E. Godehardt, P. Frank-Herrmann, and G. Freundl Time to pregnancy: results of the German prospective study and impact on the management of infertility Hum. Reprod., September 1, 2003; 18(9): 1959 - 1966. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
P.v. Zonneveld, G.J. Scheffer, F.J.M. Broekmans, M.A. Blankenstein, F.H.d. Jong, C.W.N. Looman, J.D.F. Habbema, and E.R.t. Velde Do cycle disturbances explain the age-related decline of female fertility? Cycle characteristics of women aged over 40 years compared with a reference population of young women Hum. Reprod., March 1, 2003; 18(3): 495 - 501. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
D. B. Dunson, B. Colombo, and D. D. Baird Changes with age in the level and duration of fertility in the menstrual cycle Hum. Reprod., May 1, 2002; 17(5): 1399 - 1403. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
D.B. Dunson, I. Sinai, and B. Colombo The relationship between cervical secretions and the daily probabilities of pregnancy: effectiveness of the TwoDay Algorithm Hum. Reprod., November 1, 2001; 16(11): 2278 - 2282. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
K. Tanabe, N. Susumu, K. Hand, K. Nishii, I. Ishikawa, and S. Nozawa Prediction of the potentially fertile period by urinary hormone measurements using a new home-use monitor: comparison with laboratory hormone analyses Hum. Reprod., August 1, 2001; 16(8): 1619 - 1624. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
D. B. Dunson Commentary: Practical Advantages of Bayesian Analysis of Epidemiologic Data Am. J. Epidemiol., June 15, 2001; 153(12): 1222 - 1226. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
H.M. Behre, J. Kuhlage, C. Ga{beta}ner, B. Sonntag, C. Schem, H.P.G. Schneider, and E. Nieschlag Prediction of ovulation by urinary hormone measurements with the home use ClearPlan(R) Fertility Monitor: comparison with transvaginal ultrasound scans and serum hormone measurements Hum. Reprod., December 1, 2000; 15(12): 2478 - 2482. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 A. J Wilcox, D. Dunson, and D. D. Baird The timing of the "fertile window" in the menstrual cycle: day specific estimates from a prospective study BMJ, November 18, 2000; 321(7271): 1259 - 1262. [Abstract] [Full Text]
|
|