Hum. Reprod. Advance Access originally published online on June 17, 2004
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Human Reproduction, Vol. 19, No. 7, 1548-1553,
July 2004
© 2004 European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology
Can assisted reproduction technology compensate for the natural decline in fertility with age? A model assessment
U569 Epidemiology, demography and social sciences (IFR69), INSERM (French Institute of Health and Medical Research) and INED (National Institute for Demographic Studies)
1 To whom correspondence should be addressed at: INSERM – U569, 82 rue du Général-Leclerc, 94 276 Le Kremlin-Bicêtre Cedex, France. e-mail: leridon{at}ined.fr
BACKGROUND: Maternal age is an important factor in reproduction. Can assisted reproduction technologies (ART) fully compensate for the decline in fertility with age? METHODS: We used a computer simulation (Monte Carlo) model of reproduction, combining the monthly probabilities of conceiving, the risk of miscarriage and the probability of becoming age-dependently permanently sterile. RESULTS: Under natural conditions, 75% of women starting to try to conceive at age 30 years will have a conception ending in a live birth within 1 year, 66% at age 35 years and 44% at age 40 years. Within 4 years the success rates will be respectively 91, 84 and 64%. If women turn to ART after 4, 3 or 2 years respectively without conception, and if the rate of success is as observed after two cycles of insemination in IVF, ART makes up for only half of the births lost by postponing a first attempt of pregnancy from age 30 to 35 years, and <30% after postponing from 35 to 40 years. CONCLUSIONS: Even if we relax some of the assumptions, ART in its present form cannot make up for all births lost by the natural decline of fertility after age 35 years.
Key words: fecundity/infertility/ART effectiveness/simulation model
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