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Hum. Reprod. Advance Access originally published online on June 23, 2007
Human Reproduction 2007 22(9):2471-2475; doi:10.1093/humrep/dem181
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© The Author 2007. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

Can assisted reproductive technologies help to offset population ageing? An assessment of the demographic and economic impact of ART in Denmark and UK

S. Hoorens1,*, F. Gallo*, J.A.K. Cave* and J.C. Grant*

RAND Europe, Westbrook Centre, Milton Road, Cambridge CB4 1YG, UK

1 Correspondence address. Tel: +44 1223 353329; Fax: +44 1223 358845; E-mail: hoorens{at}rand.org

Governments worldwide are searching for ways to cope with ageing populations as the demographic shift towards fewer and later births takes hold. The potential contribution of assisted reproductive technologies (ART) to increasing fertility rates has not yet been explored. This paper describes a preliminary study into the impact ART policies might have on population ageing. A deterministic model is developed to quantify the effects of ART policies on total fertility rate (TFR), and tested using data from the UK and Denmark. The population structure for 2050 is modelled to translate fertility rates into time-dependent population dynamics, and the costs of potential ART policies are investigated. If access to ART in the UK were increased to the level of Denmark, the TFR would increase by 0.04, from 1.64 to 1.68. The cumulative effect on the population structure would be a 1.7% decrease in old-age dependency ratio in 2050. Although the empirical models do not include behavioural components, the results demonstrate that ART does have potential to contribute to TFR and influence population structure, and that the direct costs associated with adopting ART as a population policy are comparable with those of existing policies commonly used by governments to influence fertility.

Key words: ART/infertility/demographic ageing/total fertility rate/population policy

* All authors work for RAND Europe, an independent, not-for-profit, research institution that helps improve policy and decision-making through objective research and analysis. RAND Europe, based in Cambridge, UK, is part of the globally operating think tank RAND Corporation. The authors have experience and expertise in policy analysis, population studies, health policy and economics.

Submitted on January 10, 2007; resubmitted on May 2, 2007; accepted on May 24, 2007.


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