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Human Reproduction, Vol. 11, No. 10, pp. 2298-2303, 1996
© 1996 European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology

research-article

Pregnancy: Prognostic models for the probability of achieving an ongoing pregnancy after in-vitro fertilization and the importance of testing their predictive value

A.M. Stolwijk1,5, G.A. Zielhuis1, C.J.C.M. Hamilton2, H. Straatman1, J.M.G. Hollanders2, H.J.M. Goverde2,3, P.A. van Dop4 and A.L.M. Verbeek1

1Department of Medical Informatics, Epidemiology and Statistics, University of Nijmegen P.O. Box 9101, NL-6500 HB Nijmegen 2Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, University Hospital Nijmegen Eindhoven, The Netherlands 3Laboratory of Endocrinology and Reproduction, University Hospital Nijmegen Eindhoven, The Netherlands 4Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Catharina Hospital Eindhoven, The Netherlands

Correspondence: 5To whom correspondence should be addressed

The aim of this study was to create reliable models to predict the probability of achieving an ongoing pregnancy during in-vitro fertilization (IVF) treatment: model A, at the start of the first treatment, model B, at the tune of embryo transfer, and model C, during the second treatment at the end of the first IVF treatment Prognostic models were created using data from the University Hospital Nijmegen (n = 757) and applied to the data from the Catharina Hospital Eindhoven (n = 432), The Netherlands, to test their predictive performance. The predictions of model B (made at time of embryo transfer) were fairly good (c = 0.672 in the test population). For instance, 93% of the patients who had a predicted probability of achieving an ongoing pregnancy of <10% did not achieve an ongoing pregnancy. However, the predictions of the other two models (A and C) for Eindhoven were less reliable. The predictive value of model C was fairly high in Nijmegen (c = 0.673). Its poor performance in the test population may be explained partly by differences in effectiveness of the ovulation stimulation protocols and the decision about when to discontinue the cycle. Thus, before using prognostic models at an IVF centre, their reliability at that specific centre should be tested.

Key words: in-vitro fertilization/ongoing pregnancy/pregnancy/prognosis/validation


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