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Human Reproduction, Vol. 15, No. 5, 1065-1068, May 2000
© 2000 European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology

External validation of the Templeton model for predicting success after IVF

J.M.J. Smeenk1,3, A.M. Stolwijk2, J.A.M. Kremer1 and D.D.M. Braat1

1 Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, University Hospital Nijmegen, PO Box 9101, NL-6500 HB Nijmegen, and 2 Department of Medical Affairs, University Hospital, Nijmegen, The Netherlands,

This study aimed to externally validate the prognostic model presented by Templeton in 1996 for live births resulting from IVF treatment. Data were used from the University Hospital, Nijmegen, The Netherlands, from March 1991 to January 1999. The predictive capacity of the model in our population discriminated between those women with a low probability of success and those with a relatively high probability. Despite these encouraging findings, our data show that implementation of the model in clinical decision-making remains difficult. The Templeton model is not applicable or usable in daily clinical practice, because the model did not give more information about the prognosis for the vast majority of the patients. Therefore, the search for better prognostic factors resulting in better predictive models should continue.

Key words: external validation/IVF/prediction/prognosis

3 To whom correspondence should be addressed


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